Novo Nordisk Eyes 15 Million New Patients
Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Doustdar said the company aims to reach roughly 15 million new patients once Medicare obesity drug coverage begins later this year.
Out of the 67 million Americans enrolled in Medicare, Doustdar estimates that around 15 million fall within the target group for Novo’s obesity treatments.
Medicare is expected to start covering obesity medications for the first time under the “most-favored-nation” drug pricing agreements struck with President Donald Trump in November. The policy shift could significantly expand access to GLP-1 weight-loss therapies.
Gradual Uptake, Not an Overnight Surge
Doustdar tempered expectations about immediate volume spikes. He said Medicare access will likely roll out gradually rather than triggering instant prescription growth.
He pointed to slower adoption patterns seen among commercially insured patients as evidence that scaling access takes time. Novo is currently negotiating the precise timeline for when coverage will formally begin.
Even so, health experts estimate that 20 to 30 million Medicare beneficiaries live with obesity and related conditions, suggesting substantial long-term demand potential.
Offsetting Lower U.S. Prices
Medicare obesity drug coverage arrives as Novo navigates lower U.S. pricing tied to the landmark drug pricing deal. Doustdar said expanded access, combined with new product launches, should help offset pricing pressure through higher prescription volumes.
The company is preparing to launch a new obesity pill and expects that innovation to support gradual market expansion.
Competitive Pressure in the GLP-1 Market
Novo faces intense competition from Eli Lilly, which recently reported a 60.5% share of the U.S. obesity and diabetes drug market, compared to Novo’s 39.1%.
In weight-loss prescriptions specifically, Novo estimates that 7 to 8 out of 10 new patients in the U.S. currently choose Lilly’s products.
To close the gap, Doustdar highlighted Novo’s oral obesity pill, which demonstrated 16.6% weight loss in clinical trials. That compares with 12.4% for Lilly’s oral candidate, orforglipron, which is expected to seek FDA approval in the second quarter.
Doustdar described the efficacy difference as a key competitive advantage in the growing oral GLP-1 segment.
Higher-Dose Wegovy as a Market Equalizer
Novo also plans to introduce a higher 7.2 mg dose of Wegovy. Clinical data show approximately 21% weight loss at that dosage, placing it close to Lilly’s Zepbound in terms of efficacy.
Zepbound’s higher weight-loss profile has drawn patients and prescribers away from Wegovy, which averages about 15% weight loss in existing studies.
Doustdar expressed confidence that comparable efficacy could rebalance prescribing patterns once the higher dose becomes widely available.
A Structural Shift in the Obesity Market
Medicare obesity drug coverage marks a structural shift for the U.S. weight-loss market. While immediate adoption may be measured, broader insurance support could unlock sustained demand over time.
For Novo Nordisk, the opportunity hinges on execution. Expanded access, competitive efficacy, and product innovation will determine whether the company can convert policy change into durable market share gains.
Mike Doustdar, left, CEO of Novo Nordisk, and David Ricks, CEO of Eli Lilly, listen as President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office during an event about weight-loss drugs on Nov. 6, 2025.
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | Afp | Getty Images
Source: CNBC
